Thursday, August 22, 2013

[Elections 2013] By-elections, what to expect?

Today are the by-elections for 41 constituencies. Here is a list of how the results might look like. Note that whenever there are two or more probably winners, they are displayed in the order of decreasing likelihood. For example PTI/PML-N/PPP would mean that PTI is most likely to win the said seat while PPP the least, however chance remains for all three and will be dependent upon voter swing. Also the percentage of color coding on a seat name represents the probability of a said party winning that seat.

Personally, I believe there should be no by-elections. The ECP should lay down a rule that doesn't allow a candidate to run for two or more seats whether national assembly or provincial assembly or a combination of the two. By-elections are waste of tax payers' money and government resources which could easily have been avoided had this extraneous rule of multiple runnings been aborted..


National (16)

NA 1 (Peshawer)       PTI
NA 5 (Noweshera)      PTI
NA 13 (Swabi)       PTI
NA 25 (D. I. Khan)       PTI/PPP  -postponed-
NA 27 (Lakki Marwat)       PML-N
NA 48 (Islamabad)       PTI
NA 68 (Sargodha)       PTI/PML-N
NA 71 (Mianwali)       PTI/PML-N
NA 83 (Faisalabad)        PML-N
NA 103 (Hafizabad)        PML-N
NA 129 (Lahore)       PML-N
NA 177 (Muzaffargarh)       Indp.
NA 235 (Sanghar)       PML-F/PPP
NA 237 (Thatta)       PPP/PML-N
NA 254 (Karachi)       MQM/PTI
NA 262 (Killa Abdullah)        PkMAP

Punjab (15)

PP 6 (Rawalpindi)       PTI
PP 51 (Faisalabad)       PML-N
PP 118 (Mandi Bhauddin)       PML-Q
PP 123 (Sialkot)       PTI
PP 142 (Lahore)       PML-N
PP 150 (Lahore)       PTI
PP 161 (Lahore)       PML-N
PP 193 (Okara)       PML-N
PP 210 (Lodhran)       PML-N/Indp.
PP 217 (Khanewal)       PPP/PML-N
PP 243 (D. G. Khan)       PML-N
PP 247 (Rajanpur)       PML-N/Indp.
PP 254 (Muzaffargarh)       PML-N/PTI
PP 289 (Rahim Yar Khan)      PPP
PP 292 (Rahim Yar Khan)      PPP

Sindh (4)

PS 12 (Shikarpur)       NPP/PPP
PS 64 (Mirpurkhas)       PPP
PS 95 (Karachi)       MQM/PPP/PTI
PS 103 (Karachi)       MQM/PTI

KPK (4)

PK 23 (Mardan)       PTI
PK 27 (Mardan)       PTI
PK 42 (Hangu)       JUI-F/PTI
PK 70 (Bannu)       JUI-F/PTI

Balochistan (3)

PB 29 (Nasirabad)       PML-N
PB 32 (Jhal Magsi)      JUI-F/Indp.
PB 44 (Lasbela)       Indp.

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